Epic Universe, Flat Rents and Where to Invest in Central Florida
Orlando rents have gone flat while Epic Universe drives record tourism, and Brevard County offers steadier income. What the late-2026 numbers mean for investors.
Key takeaways
- 01Orlando apartment rents are up only 0.4% year over year as of October 2026, with vacancy expected to hold near 8.9%.
- 02Orlando drew a record 76.7 million visitors in 2025 and Orange County tourist tax collections are up 8.6% year to date.
- 03Brevard County's single-family median held at $380,000 with months of supply down to 3.5, and Palm Bay rents rose 3.46%.
- 04At a 7.40% mortgage rate, most Orlando investment purchases need a discount or larger down payment to cash flow in year one.
- 05Short-term rentals near the parks require zoning approval, a DBPR license and a budget for tourism volatility.
Central Florida gives investors two very different rental stories in late 2026. Orlando's long-term rents have gone flat while the tourism engine keeps setting records, and the Space Coast has settled into a steadier, job-driven market that rewards patient buy-and-hold landlords.
That split should shape what you buy, where you buy it, and how you plan to operate it. Here is what the current numbers say, and how we read them for anyone putting money to work in either market today.
Orlando rents have stopped climbing, for now
The rent surge of 2021 and 2022 is over. As of October 2026 the average Orlando apartment rents for $1,580 for a one-bedroom and $1,891 for a two-bedroom, up just 0.4% from a year ago, or about $6 a month (Apartments.com). Other rent trackers show the same picture: essentially flat year over year.
The reason is supply. Orlando's apartment vacancy is expected to hold near 8.9% through 2026, with asking rents forecast to rise only about 1.2% for the year (Northmarq, Q4 2025 Orlando Multifamily Report). The good news for owners is that the pipeline is thinning: deliveries in 2025 fell 10% from 2024, and the number of units under construction is roughly 40% lower than a year earlier. Meanwhile the same report notes the metro's population grew 12.7% in the five years ending in 2024. Demand is still arriving; it is simply being absorbed by a wave of new buildings that will not repeat at the same scale.
For a single-family or townhome investor, that matters in two ways. Your tenant pool competes with heavily marketed new apartments offering concessions, so your home has to show well and be priced to the current comps, not to 2022. And the pricing power you give up today likely returns in 2027 and beyond as the construction pipeline shrinks.
Tourism keeps breaking records, with one caveat
Orlando welcomed a record 76.7 million visitors in 2025, up 1.8% from 2024. Domestic visitors hit 70.3 million, also a record, while international visitation slipped 2.4% to 6.3 million, driven mostly by a 13.3% drop in Canadian travelers (Visit Orlando).
The momentum carried into 2026. Orange County collected $31,474,700 in tourist development tax in July 2026, up 6.4% from July 2025 and another monthly record, bringing the year-to-date total to about $356.7 million, up 8.6%. Hotel occupancy was 74.1% and short-term rental demand rose 3% (WKMG News 6, Orange County Comptroller data).
Universal's Epic Universe, which opened in May 2025, is the headline driver. Still, Comcast told investors in July 2026 that while theme park revenue rose 3% and Epic Universe is producing higher per-guest spending, attendance at Universal Orlando softened beginning in June, which executives tied to fuel prices and weaker consumer sentiment rather than the new park itself (Attractions Magazine). The Comptroller's office likewise expected August collections to dip. Tourism in Orlando is strong and record-setting, but it is not a straight line.
What a short-term rental near the parks really requires
A vacation rental is a hospitality business with a mortgage attached. Before you underwrite one, confirm three things. First, zoning: whole-home short-term rentals are permitted only in designated areas and with local permits in Orange and Osceola counties, and many HOAs prohibit them outright. Second, licensing: Florida requires a state vacation rental license from the Department of Business and Professional Regulation for homes rented by the night or week, plus collection of state sales tax and the county tourist development tax. Third, operating cost: furnishing, cleaning, platform fees, utilities, and management can consume a large share of gross revenue.
The upside is real during peak travel weeks, and Epic Universe has added a reason for repeat visits. The risk is concentration: your income depends on tourism, fuel prices, and the strength of the dollar. The 2025 drop in Canadian visitors is a reminder of how quickly one segment can move.
Key point: Orlando long-term rents are flat and vacancy is elevated, but the construction pipeline is shrinking fast. Investors who buy right and hold through 2027 are positioned for the next leg of rent growth, while short-term rental buyers should underwrite for volatility, not just peak-season revenue.
The Space Coast is the steady-income market
Brevard County looks different because its demand is anchored in payrolls, not vacations. The single-family median sale price held at $380,000 in July 2026, unchanged from a year earlier, while closed sales rose 4.1% and months of supply fell to 3.5 from 4.6 (Space Coast Association of Realtors, July 2026). Homes are also going under contract faster than they did a year ago, which is the opposite of what Orlando is seeing.
The employment base keeps widening. SpaceX continues to hire on the Cape, and Blue Origin announced a major expansion of its Merritt Island manufacturing campus in June 2026 to build New Glenn upper stages. Engineers and technicians relocating for those roles typically rent first, and they rent for a year or more.
Rents reflect that demand. Palm Bay apartments averaged $1,605 as of October 1, 2026, up 3.46% year over year, with West Melbourne at $1,730, Cocoa at $1,753 and Rockledge at $1,848 (RentCafe). Those are modest numbers next to beachside single-family rents, but the growth rate is several times what Orlando is posting.
What this means in Orlando and on the Space Coast
| Factor | Orlando short-term rental | Orlando long-term rental | Brevard long-term rental |
|---|---|---|---|
| Demand driver | Theme park tourism, 76.7M visitors | Population growth, 12.7% in 5 years | Aerospace and defense payrolls |
| Current rent trend | Record tax collections, demand up 3% | Flat, about 0.2% to 0.4% YoY | Rising, about 3.5% YoY in Palm Bay |
| Main risk | Tourism swings, zoning, operating cost | Elevated vacancy near 8.9% | Insurance and smaller tenant pool |
| Best fit | Hands-on operators near the parks | Patient buyers planning a 2027 upswing | Investors who want predictable income |
In Orlando, the smartest buys right now are well-located homes purchased at a discount to replacement cost, in neighborhoods where new apartment supply is thin. On the Space Coast, look at Rockledge, Viera, West Melbourne and Palm Bay for commute access to the Cape and Melbourne employers, and underwrite insurance carefully on anything near the water.
Financing at 7.40% changes the math
The average 30-year fixed rate stood at 7.40% as of October 15, 2026, up from 6.27% a year earlier (Freddie Mac). Investment property loans price above that. At these rates, a typical Orlando purchase financed with 20% to 25% down will not cash flow in year one unless you buy well below market or put more money down. That is not a reason to sit out; it is a reason to build your offer around real numbers rather than the listing's pro forma. Our mortgage team at Don Harkins Mortgage can price investor, second-home and HELOC options side by side so you know your true carrying cost before you write an offer.
If you already own a home with a low rate and are thinking about upgrading, read how to keep your current home as a rental when you move. It is often the lowest-cost way into the landlord business.
Next step
Tell us which market and which strategy you are leaning toward, and we will pull current rent comps, days-on-market data and an honest cash-flow estimate for the properties on your list. You can browse what we have on the market now on our featured listings page or start a search through our buyer resources. When you are ready to lease, Sea Dog Property Management handles tenant placement and full-service management across Orlando and the Space Coast.
Frequently asked questions
Is Orlando still a good market for short-term rentals after Epic Universe?
Why are Orlando rents flat when so many people are moving in?
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Emily Harkins
Co-Owner, Don Harkins Realty
Emily is co-owner of Don Harkins Realty and writes about selling, renovating, and living well in Orlando and on the Space Coast, drawing on the team's own experience preparing and marketing homes across Central Florida.
